AI Predictions are Projections

Blowing bubbles and seeing shadows

Welcome back to The Workaround. I’m Bob 👋

You’re in good company with fellow entrepreneurs and innovators who follow my stories from a career in tech startups and corporate innovation.

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At the end of 2025, it was time to tally the results from a bunch of big predictions about what AI would bring us.

Nearly every one of them was wrong:

• GPT-5 was not a major leap forward

• Deep Seek did not upend the market

• AI agents did not join the workforce or take on everyday chores

• AI did not write 90% of code

• “Dead Internet” did not arrive

• We aren’t close to Artificial General Intelligence

• Neither Skynet nor Utopia is near

• And the bubble didn’t burst

Cal Newport, a computer scientist and productivity expert who is the voice of reason on so many topics of our time, discussed the prediction scoreboard on his podcast last week.

He decided he’s past paying attention to them going forward:

“So, this is how I’m thinking about AI in 2026. Enough of the predictions. I’m done reacting to hypotheticals propped up by vibes.”

It’s not a bad 2026 resolution. Imagine the mindspace and time we could free up by just ignoring what the prognosticators want us to fear or hope for, around AI, and much more.

But I think there’s a better solution: Learn how and why we worry over predictions in the first place.

The Prediction Game

Predictions are fun, in a way, right?

Like opinions overall, anyone is welcome to share their own. So-called Experts might have more credibility in the game, but they are usually wrong as often—or more often—than the general public. This includes Social Scientists’ predictions about societal change.¹

OK, I want you to come up with a prediction about AI. Make it something you feel strongly about, that might have a big impact in the next 2-3 years.

I know you’re tempted to keep reading. I almost always ignore books and posts that ask me to do some actual work. But do it this time. Seriously!

Got it? You sure? I’m trusting you!

I’ve got a prediction to share, too. I’m dying to share it. I got so riled up when I heard a story that I sat down to get it on paper almost immediately…

The Client Meeting

A few weeks ago, I sat down for catch-up beers with my friend, “Brett.” He works at a startup. His startup uses AI to help really big businesses stay really big, in a very small way.

Brett told me about a client meeting he just flew back from. It was with one of those really big businesses, one that’s been around forever. You’ve got its products in your house right now. He was in his second or third meeting with representatives of this company, pitching a short-term pilot with one of its smaller business units. The contract was for $20,000—pretty much the smallest contract any big company like this signs.

There were 20 clients in the meeting.

TWENTY.

They weren’t excited. They barely asked any questions. Most of the people who Zoomed in didn’t turn on their cameras.

Twenty people and multiple meetings for a tiny contract. A contract that is in week four of legal review. And at a company that 6 months ago underwent a major layoff, promising Wall Street it was streamlining operations.

Back in my agency days, we used to do the math on our meetings. Since we billed by the hour, we could look around the room and estimate the cost impact on our business and/or the client’s budget.

As I listened to Brett, I started thinking about the average salary and benefits package for these twenty mid-to-senior-level employees and estimated the total hours spent in meetings, emails, Teams messages, and contracting related to this deal. I quickly calculated that this $20,000 contract could cost double that in internal bureaucracy. And this doesn’t account for the opportunity cost of many very important people not spending this time on much more important tasks.

But any one of those twenty people could do something to block or delay the pilot further.

I know, because I’ve been on both sides of Brett’s position throughout my entire career. I spent 5 years leading business units on the client side, and had to move mountains internally to get anything new in the door. Then I had two long runs as an agency owner helping big companies navigate change. The lethargy Brett experienced reminded me that they are very difficult to change.

We finished our conversation, and I fast-walked home to jot down notes for this post. This story would be my starting point for this essay on how a glacial operating mode invites AI to replace jobs.

I went to sleep that night, excited to write the next day…

The next morning, in the shower, I remembered that writing this post was on my agenda. Then I stopped.

I said to myself, “Wait a minute…How is this post going to help anyone? This is just me venting. Oh, I’m projecting a shadow…”

Say Hello to Your Shadow

My mention of shadow is not in reference to Groundhog Day, but it is a good reminder that there are only 19 shopping days until Punxsutawney Phil predicts how much more winter we’ll have.²

Here, I’m referring to the shadow side of ourselves. I’ll bet this at least sounds familiar, as the concept is moving beyond psychology textbooks and therapy into everyday dialogue. I’m no psychologist, but let me try to break it down, Barney Style:

Our reaction to anything external is a projection of what is inside us. All the ideas, people, places, and things we encounter in life are like blank screens. When we “see” them, it’s like a projector light of awareness goes through the “film” of who we are. This film is our historical experiences, values, norms, and judgments. Everyone who reads my words on this screen has a unique experience.³

We don’t see the world as it is. We see it as we are.

A basic example is visible when I walk my dog, Blue, and look at the faces of people we pass. Most of them at least cast a glance Blue’s way. When they smile at him, I can tell they are dog lovers. They probably had a dog growing up, might have one at home now, and recall fond memories of sharing love with a snuggly puppy. Other people look at him with fear and wariness, making sure I have a firm hold on his leash and even taking a step or two away. I know they have had bad experiences with dogs, or been told stories or warnings. Each “sees” my dog—but they are really projecting a little piece of who they are inside.

Shadow projection is a concept in depth psychology, most closely associated with Carl Jung. It describes how people unconsciously attribute disowned parts of themselves to the outside world. Disowned means: “The stuff we don’t want to admit is inside us.”

The Shadow consists of traits, impulses, fears, desires, and capacities that don’t fit our self-image or social identity. Rather than experiencing these directly (“this is in me”), the psyche often projects them outward (“this is out there”).

In noticing our projected shadows, we see what we fear, what we secretly want, and what trauma and baggage we haven’t dealt with yet. For example:

• “Kids these days are lazy”—Behind this comment lies unacknowledged (or repressed) regret, missed freedom, burnout, and/or envy.

• “I love (or hate) this celebrity”—We are reminded what we could be (or must not be).

• “That politician is awful”—We project our dislike for being dominated by an authority figure, like the jerk boss or strict parent from our early career and life.

The problem with Shadows is that they get in the way of positive experiences, decisions, and outcomes in our lives. They can be the negative biases and wrong assumptions that lead us to treat people poorly or make bad decisions. Some are traumas from early life that leak negativity into much of our waking lives, like mental pollution. Projection is a way to avoid dealing with the baggage we carry.

Substitute “person” for “dog” in my example above, and you see the source of at least 90% of our problems in the world. We project our assumptions about other people, often with a negative bias. But most dogs and people are pretty cool once you get to know them.

And hey! Shadows are normal, healthy, and part of being human! We’ve all got ‘em. So don’t kick yourself; just see this, and in seeing it, you gain a better perspective, heal, and grow.

Artificial General Shadows

My friend, Joe Hovde, does a great job of sharing his realization of the shadows behind AI. In his post, “What are people really using LLMs for?”, Joe writes:

“I find reading & thinking about AI generally unsettling. (But) when I compartmentalize my anxieties it’s fascinating to watch.”

In other words, he understands that his projections can get in the way of understanding AI, so he consciously turns down this shadow side.

Albert Cory gets it, too. He just dropped a hilarious post outlining how the social media you use shows your shadow’s opinion on AI:

“TikTok is for the children of the people getting laid off because of AI. Instagram is for the older siblings of those children. Facebook is written by AI….”

AI is triggering a lot of shadow projection in us because it has some particular powers. It is intelligent but non-human. AI has unclear boundaries. It perfectly reflects human language, intent, and cognition. And AI spawns questions of power, meaning, safety, and identity.

The ultimate technology is our ultimate mirror.

Me and My Shadow

Now let’s go back to that prediction you came up with earlier. Ready to share? To think about what this says about the shadows inside you?

OK, I’ll go first…

Brett’s story triggered a shadow in me, forged over years of frustration working with large corporations.

For decades, I rode the same peaks, troughs, slopes, and plateaus of the technology Hype Cycle. I trudged through endless meetings and legal reviews as my clients repeated the five stages of digital transformation: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance.

Writing a post about AI taking over bureaucratic work and its impact on those 20 meeting attendees would be Man Yelling at Cloud instead of Bob seeing his shadow.

What’s really in my shadow? Frustration…Anger. I focused my career on technology transformation. I saw how testing and taking risks with new technology could help my and my clients’ businesses thrive. I wanted to fearlessly charge forward into it. YOLO so LFG!

Yet I faced countless challenges motivating the businesses I worked with to take a baby step, let alone a leap into the future.

And every client relationship came with a sense of paranoia that still sticks with me. Every client I ever had could fire us on a whim—like if they “wanted fresh ideas” or if another agency lead took them to a playoff game or shopping trip.

That’s a good start, but I need to dig further…

I built two digital marketing agencies that became strategic acquisitions thanks to great teammates and strong financials. But I’m left wondering if the end product we sold actually moved the needle for our clients or was just innovation theater. Which makes me wonder whether I lived up to my very dear life-long objective of making a positive dent in the universe…

So when I hear a story like Brett’s, it touches some scar tissue inside me. I see he and twenty clients all struggling through the systems of fear that dominate much of business and life today. I fired up my projector and prepared to cast it onto a Substack post.

Whew! That, my friends, is a Shadow.

Seeing it is the first and biggest step. I got the poison out. It’s no longer buried inside; it’s on the table. And in the light of day, I can examine it and see if it’s got a legit point.

In this case, I find it’s not helpful. I see where it came from and who I was then. But things worked out fine. Nobody meant any harm—just humans humaning through another uniquely messy chapter in our species’s development.

My teams and I helped companies and individual clients learn and advance. We created hundreds of roles for employees and helped them grow in ways they wouldn’t have if our companies didn’t exist. Probably ten other good things came from my corporate frustrations, including lifelong friendships with people like Brett.

Just in writing this, I start chuckling at the Bob who still got worked up about this. Laughter at yourself is the best proof that the self-work is working.

Accept, Internalize, and Let It Go. (Repeat daily as needed)

Your Turn…

With so many predictions projections about AI these days, it’s pretty easy to see some consistent shadows behind them.

The first, most obvious, and probably largest group is any prediction that reveals the financial incentives of the person making it. AI tech companies make bold predictions to attract investors at high valuations. Sam Altman has a habit of making bold claims, then “cooling the hype” days after his latest VC round closes.

You can see both financial and status shadows projected in the many writers, professors, and speakers who have built personal brands around predicting doom, boom, or bubble. They attract an audience of fellow shadow projectors through media coverage and paid subscriptions, and must stay consistent in their message to keep the attention and money coming in. This is called audience capture.

Another emerging trend is business leaders claiming layoffs were due to AI, with almost no evidence to support it. Many are projecting shadows of guilt. Instead of owning up to their failures and feelings about displaced employees, they point to AI to cast blame and claim credit. They can’t handle the truth that they don’t know what they are doing.

AI is frequently blamed—projected—as a reason people don’t take career risks. I hear things like, “With all the AI changes, I’m not sure it’s a good time to start a company,” or “I’d really like to switch careers, but what if AI takes that over?” Of course, there are some real threats, but often these shadows are conveniently projected to give us excuses not to leave our comfort zone. They can even be like an ego protection strategy: “I would have taken more risks in life, but AI showed up…”

You can see leaders afraid of people when they share their hopes of turning more work over to AI. They simply cannot figure out how to operate in a world that’s no longer command-and-control, and they are not willing to humble themselves before the people who keep their business running.

Here’s one that I’ll bet you hear almost every day now. A friend or co-worker has an idea or insight and mentions using AI. “I put data into ChatGPT, and it said…” Why do we do that now? Are we projecting a fear that we’ll be found out for this? Or are we trying to gain credibility for our idea by saying it came from AI? There’s something there, and we should at least ask ourselves why we say this now.

Looking more broadly, you can see shadow projections in the fight over AI in the classroom. Some teachers and professors complain that students don’t care to learn today. But they may be projecting their frustration with the need for change and perhaps their very value in life. Some gravitated toward these careers to escape constant change (i.e., tenure), and they have gotten away with assigning students the same uninspiring lectures, readings, and tests for decades. Instead of evolving to fit how we learn today, they will complain to the bitter end.

Overall, fear is the source of so many of our shadows. Fear for our jobs, for our children’s careers, for the environment, for our very survival. These core fears are natural. They come from our survival-of-the-fittest genetic programming. But fear is almost never projected accurately. Remember that list at the top of the post? All wrong. Or look at the Doomsday Scoreboard.

This is also why society increasingly sees social and news scrolls as draining, or worse. Each swipe activates shadows.⁴

Constant shadow projections and failed predictions of fear are not a pleasant way to spend our relatively few days on this planet.

Our Life’s Work

Here’s a helpful reframe that I try to practice now: Rejoice when you see your shadow.

Seeing it is the first step in dissolving its power and returning this energy to you.

Think of it this way: We have a certain supply of mental energy. All the annoying voices, beliefs, and shadows in our minds are small “mental engines” constantly running in the background. These machines drain energy without our knowledge or permission.

Literally think of them as projectors—you know, those things we used to haul to meetings or classrooms? Recall how they put off a ton of light, noise, and heat? Your mind is a room with hundreds of them running shitty PowerPoint presentations non-stop on a loop. They overlap and play in every corner of our minds, distracting and draining us of mental and physical energy. We end up tired, unmotivated, and burned out, even though we work fewer hours than any prior generation.

Once we see the shadows in this way—as a self-projection—we can walk around our minds and start pulling their plugs. Energy frees up, and it starts to add up to greater clarity, calmness, happiness, and optimism.

Think about when you are in a flow state—that’s when all this energy is focused, usually on something creative and inspiring. Those shadows and voices are dimmed in those few minutes or hours. Now, imagine being in a flow state most of the day. That’s what starts to happen when we learn to power down these projections and recapture their energy. Many other interesting things happen, too.

If fear and anger are still projecting, try sending love instead. Loving-kindness meditation is a practice in which we project positive thoughts toward the people who test us. It’s like shining a big light on the shadow and releasing its grip—often its very existence. This has been a life-changer for me. Check out Jeff Williams’ recent post for more on this.

AI can do a lot, and much more is to come in the long term. But perhaps its most important role—right now—is showing us who we are inside, both individually and collectively.

We’re not going to use AI well or be well with AI until we use it to see the shadows lurking within us that we’re overdue in dealing with.

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If you like my writing, feel free to click the ❤️ or 🔄 button on this post so more people can discover it on Substack 🙏

BONUS: Curious about what my original post would have touched on? Want to hear some predictions I have about AI? Head over to the Podcast or YouTube versions of this post, where I’ll get that out of my system for fun.

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1. Why are the Experts often so wrong? Mostly an overconfidence bias. They also tend not to have skin in the game, which means they put less effort into accuracy, or they have skin in the game in the form of their personal research and are not able to say anything that defies their body of work.

2. But maybe I am talking about Groundhog Day. Carl Jung would likely say we invented this event—a furry rodent peeking his head out and observing his shadow (or not)—as a projection of what’s happening inside our minds so often. We humans constantly seek some safety in predictions to help us handle the future. Groundhog Day is a literal expression of our shadow side.

3. My goal in writing is to open your aperture just a little bit more—to help you gain perspective by climbing up a rung on the ladder of perspective. But I have to walk a very fine line. I need to present something that fits close enough to your existing internal “film strip” of experiences, beliefs, and trust. With this, I can present an idea that’s a bit outside your comfort zone. Maybe the idea will stick after you finish reading this, and you’ll test it out. And if it works, you just unlocked a higher perspective of life, for life. Ironically, this is the skill I used with clients at my agencies. I gotta tell you, working on raising people’s consciousness is a lot more fun and rewarding than helping them do more digital marketing.

4. For much, much more on this topic, see my recent post: What if We’re Already in Hell?